In the second week of April, prices in the European electricity markets showed stability that resulted in slightly higher weekly averages than the previous week. This behavior is largely attributed to the reduction in wind production. In contrast, photovoltaic solar experienced a considerable increase, reaching record figures in countries like France and Italy. Additionally, Brent oil, gas, and CO2 futures marked their lowest closing prices since April 2021, September 2024, and April 2024, respectively.
Photovoltaic solar production stood out significantly in several European markets during the week of April 7th. In the Iberian Peninsula, there were significant increases of 17% in Spain and 10% in Portugal, reversing the downward trend observed the previous week. Italy reached its highest daily solar production in history on April 11th, with 144 GWh, while France set its record on April 8th with 132 GWh. However, it is anticipated that this trend will change for the week of April 14th, with an expected decrease in photovoltaic production in markets like Germany, Spain, and Italy.
On the other hand, wind production experienced falls compared to the previous week, with decreases of 54% in Portugal and 37% in France. Germany and Italy experienced smaller reductions, of 19% and 16%, respectively. For the week of April 14th, an increase in wind generation is expected in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy, although Germany and France will continue to see declines.
Regarding electricity demand, a decrease was observed in most European markets during the week of April 7th, marking the fourth consecutive week of declines in Germany, France, and Spain, and the third in Portugal. However, the Belgian and British markets showed increases of 4.4% and 2.7% respectively. The increase in average temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula and Germany had a direct effect on the decrease in demand, while in other countries like France, Belgium, and Italy, average temperatures decreased.
Prices in the European electricity markets remained at similar levels to the previous week, with some variations. The Italian IPEX market stood out for registering a 10% decrease, while the EPEX SPOT in the Netherlands saw the highest increase, at 10%. Most of the markets analyzed maintained weekly averages below 75 €/MWh, with the Nordic market presenting the lowest weekly average, at 28.54 €/MWh.
In terms of futures, Brent oil prices remained below $70/bbl, reaching a minimum weekly closing of $62.82/bbl on April 8th and a maximum of $65.48/bbl on the 9th. This behavior was influenced by US tariffs and trade tensions that impacted global demand expectations. Additionally, TTF gas futures continued to decline, reaching a minimum of 33.67 €/MWh.
As we move towards the third week of April, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting anticipates that prices will continue to decline, driven by low electricity demand and a possible increase in wind production in most markets. In a recent webinar, the company analyzed the global economic situation and regulations related to energy storage, addressing the outlook for European electricity markets in the face of various challenges.
Referrer: MiMub in Spanish