AleaSoft: Price Forecasting as a Fundamental Pillar for Energy Marketers in the Energy Transition

In the context of the global energy transformation, electricity retailers are facing a landscape filled with challenges and opportunities that are redefining their operations. The growing integration of renewable energy sources, combined with the electrification of demand and market volatility, compels these companies to adopt more strategic approaches in a continuously evolving environment.

Renewable energies have gained increasing importance, driven by the push towards decarbonization affecting various sectors. In particular, industries are adopting the electrification of their processes as a fundamental strategy to reduce pollutant emissions. This shift towards more versatile energy consumption adds complexity to supply and highlights the need for accurate forecasts of the energy market.

For retailers, anticipating market variations has become essential, as they must offer competitive prices and seek sustainable margins. To achieve this, they rely on structured data across three time horizons. In the short term, price forecasting is applied to optimize purchases in spot markets and minimize penalties. In the medium term, strategies and prices are adjusted, while in the long term, planning focuses on signing long-term contracts, known as PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements), which ensure stable prices for industrial customers.

The growing demand for energy predictability from consumers has led retailers to present more robust and well-founded contracts. It is expected that rates and PPAs will be adjusted according to market seasonality; for example, in spring, when spot market prices tend to drop, this benefits photovoltaic projects.

The incorporation of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning is revolutionizing the way forecasts are made in the energy market. These tools enable projections to be tailored to different scenarios and time horizons, ensuring a solid foundation for making informed decisions.

AleaSoft, a leading company in this field, collaborates with retailers of various sizes by providing hourly forecasts that enhance both tactical and strategic planning. Its specialized divisions offer analyses on energy storage optimization and the viability of investments in renewable projects.

On July 10, AleaSoft will host a webinar addressing the latest developments in European energy markets, the state of the PPA market, and opportunities in the energy storage sector, featuring experts in finance and intensive consumption. In a market that is continuously shifting, the ability to forecast has become a key element for competitiveness and sustainable growth during this energy transition.