The global agri-food market is going through a period of notable volatility, characterized by rising record prices in certain products and unexpected falls in others. According to a recent analysis by Areté, a company dedicated to agri-food intelligence, inflation and supply-demand imbalances continue to have a significant impact on essential raw materials, leading to significant price fluctuations.
Among the products that have experienced a notable increase is arabica coffee, which has seen an 80% increase compared to the previous year and an astonishing 200% since 2020. This increase is attributed to a decrease in production in Brazil, one of the main global producers, as well as a global supply deficit that is affecting consumers.
Cocoa, on the other hand, has also been caught up in the high price volatility trend, with a 70% year-on-year increase. This growth is due to limited stocks and climate risks threatening production in various producing regions.
One of the most significant increases has been in coconut oil, which has increased by 80% compared to the previous year. This increase is largely the result of reduced exports from the Philippines, which fell by 10% in January, as well as persistent tensions in maritime trade in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, palm oil has reached prices not seen since 2022 with a 23% increase in February, driven by low production in Malaysia and logistical difficulties in the Suez Canal.
In the tomato sector, Italy has managed to establish a historic agreement for the price of processed tomatoes, set at 145 euros per ton, which represents a 25% increase above the average of the last five years. However, projections point to a possible decrease in production in the 2025/26 season.
Contrasting situations can be seen in Argentina, where peanut prices have fallen by 28% since their peak in 2024, driven by expectations of a record harvest and the elimination of export duties.
In the European dairy industry, butter continues to trend downwards, with its price decreasing by 14% since last December due to lower demand and price competition in the global market.
This complex panorama is further complicated by the start of a trade war between the United States and China, marked by the imposition of new tariffs and counter-tariffs. So far, this conflict has not influenced the trade of soybeans, a key crop for the US agricultural economy.
These changes highlight a complex and dynamic environment for the global agri-food industry, where climatic, economic, and geopolitical factors play a decisive role in the evolution of markets.
via: MiMub in Spanish