In the last week of November, European electricity markets experienced a notable increase in electricity prices, surpassing €100/MWh in most cases. This increase was mainly driven by a decrease in wind energy production and rising gas prices. Despite the growth in solar photovoltaic production, which reached record levels in Germany, it was not enough to offset the decline in wind energy contribution.
During this period, there was a significant increase in solar generation in most European markets. Germany led this surge with a 46% increase in solar production. In contrast, Italy experienced a 17% decrease. It is expected that in the first week of December, Spain and Italy will continue to increase their solar production, while Germany is expected to see a decrease.
On the other hand, wind production saw a decline in all major European markets, with Spain experiencing the most extreme case with a 49% decrease. For the next week, an increase in wind production is anticipated in Spain, while Germany, France, Italy, and Portugal may face further reductions.
In terms of electricity demand, there was an increase in Spain and Italy during the week of November 25, although this trend was not replicated in other European markets. The latter mostly experienced a decrease, influenced by warmer temperatures than usual for this time of year.
Electricity market prices reflected these challenges: while the Nordic market saw a price drop, others, like the MIBEL market in the Iberian Peninsula, witnessed considerable increases, reaching up to 34%. Expectations for the next week point to further price increases in most European markets, with some exceptions like Spain and Italy, where a slight decrease could be seen due to the increase in renewable production and a decrease in demand during a holiday.
Globally, Brent oil prices fluctuated during the last week, influenced by geopolitical events such as the ceasefire in Lebanon and the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting. These dynamics also affected TTF gas prices and CO2 emission rights futures, showing significant variations during this period.
In the energy forecasting field, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting announced a webinar scheduled for December 12, addressing the evolution of the electricity market and prospects for energy transition in Europe. This event will feature representatives from renowned consulting firms such as PwC Spain, Deloitte, and EY, who will discuss the challenges and opportunities in the European energy sector.
via: MiMub in Spanish