The new climate commitments from governments have resulted in a slight reduction in the rise of global temperatures this century; however, they still leave the world exposed to increasing climate risks and damages. This alarming conclusion comes from the latest Emissions Gap Report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), recently released just before the COP30 climate conference set to take place in Belém, Brazil.
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, world leaders have committed to keeping the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably within the 1.5°C threshold. However, nearly a decade later, projections indicate that with the plans currently in place, the temperature rise could be between 2.3 and 2.5 °C. This represents a slight improvement over last year’s estimates, which were between 2.6 and 2.8 °C.
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which outline countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, continue to show limited progress. So far, only 60 parties, less than a third of the countries, have submitted new contributions before the end of September. Current policies suggest an increase of 2.8 °C, improving from the projected 3.1 °C in 2022.
UNEP has also noted that methodological updates have partly contributed to these improvements; however, the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could counteract any progress, indicating that the new contributions have been barely effective. To align with the Agreement’s goals, annual emissions reductions of 35% and up to 55% compared to 2019 are needed.
The report warns that it is likely global temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C at least temporarily, which would be difficult to reverse. Inger Andersen, the Executive Director of UNEP, emphasized that while national climate plans have seen some successes, they remain insufficient. Urgent and decisive emission cuts are needed in an increasingly complex geopolitical context.
Moreover, the report calls for an acceleration in emission reductions to try to stay below the 1.5 °C threshold by 2100. Every fraction of a degree avoided could significantly reduce damages and health impacts affecting all nations, especially the most vulnerable. The international community has the capacity to accelerate climate action, as proven technologies such as wind and solar energy can facilitate substantial emission reductions.
Andersen stressed that now is the time for countries to fully commit and invest in a more sustainable future through ambitious climate actions that not only benefit the environment but also generate economic growth, jobs, and energy security.
Source: MiMub in Spanish
