In the third week of July, prices in most European electricity markets experienced an increase compared to the previous week. However, price decreases over the weekend helped to keep these increases below 10%. It is worth noting that Portugal set a historical record for photovoltaic production on July 16, and France recorded a production record for the month of July on the 18th. Italy also saw the highest electricity demand in 2024 to date.
Regarding photovoltaic and thermoelectric production, the week of July 15 showed an increase in Germany, France, and Portugal, with Germany experiencing the highest increase at 9.3%. Portugal maintained steady growth for the third consecutive week. In contrast, Spain and Italy saw decreases in solar production, with drops of 5.2% and 0.9% respectively.
The Portuguese market set a new record for photovoltaic production with 23 GWh on July 16, surpassing the previous record from July 13. In France, July 18 marked the highest daily solar production for the month of July with 127 GWh. An increase in solar production is anticipated for Germany, Spain, and Italy in the fourth week of July, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
On the other hand, wind production decreased in most major European electricity markets during the third week of July, except for France, which had a growth of 31%. The German market registered the largest decrease at 15%, followed by Italy with 14% and Portugal with a minimal reduction of 0.1%. However, an increase in wind production is expected in Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Italy for the week of July 22, while a decrease is expected in France.
Electricity demand showed heterogeneous variations among the major European markets. Italy had the highest increase at 7.1%, followed by Spain and France with increases of 3.4% and 1.6%, respectively. On the other hand, Portugal, Great Britain, Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands saw a decrease in demand. Portugal had the largest decrease at 2.7%, and the smallest drop was observed in the UK at 0.6%.
On July 18, Italy recorded the highest electricity demand of the year with 1158 GWh. Throughout the week, average temperatures rose in all analyzed markets, with Belgium and the Netherlands registering the most significant increases. For the fourth week of July, an increase in demand is expected in Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands, while a decrease is expected in Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, and Great Britain.
Electricity prices in European markets increased in the third week of July, although the Nord Pool in the Nordic countries saw an 11% decrease. The French market had the highest increase at 10%, while the Italian market showed the smallest increase at 2.2%. Weekly prices averaged less than 75 €/MWh in most markets, except in the UK and Italy.
The significant drop in wind production, the slight increase in natural gas prices, and the rise in electricity demand in some markets contributed to the rise in electricity prices. However, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting forecasts indicate that prices could stabilize or even decrease slightly in the fourth week of July thanks to a recovery in wind and solar production.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil futures started the week with declines, reaching a maximum closing price of $85.11/bbl on July 18, before dropping to $82.63/bbl on July 19. Factors such as demand in China, the strength of the dollar, and the situation in Gaza influenced these movements. TTF gas futures also fluctuated, with their highest price of 33.24 €/MWh recorded on July 16.
Finally, CO2 emission rights prices also showed a downward trend, closing the week at a minimum of 66.30 €/t on July 19, the lowest since the end of April. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, various factors such as updating long-term price curve forecasts and the development of renewable energy projects will continue to be relevant for the future of European electricity markets.
Referrer: MiMub in Spanish
