In the third week of November, European electricity markets have experienced a significant price increase, driven by growing demand due to low temperatures and a decrease in renewable energy production in several countries. Most markets have exceeded €95/MWh on a weekly average, with the Italian market standing out at an average of €119/MWh.
Solar photovoltaic production on the Iberian Peninsula has seen a significant increase, with a 39% growth in Spain and an impressive 126% increase in Portugal compared to the previous week. Both countries achieved record solar production for a day in November, with Spain generating 132 GWh on November 18 and Portugal reaching 18 GWh on November 20. However, Italy’s solar production experienced a 31% decrease.
Regarding wind production, the numbers have been varied. Italy and Germany reported growth, with Italy leading with a 70% increase. In contrast, wind production decreased on the Iberian Peninsula, with a 60% drop in Portugal and a 22% decrease in Spain. Forecasts for the last week of November suggest an increase in wind generation in Italy and the Iberian Peninsula, while a decrease is expected in Germany and France.
Electricity demand also showed a significant increase, with the French market leading with a 31% rise. The Belgian and British markets followed with increases of 15% and 14%, respectively. In Spain, Germany, and Italy, demand grew between 5.8% and 6.9%, facilitated by the recovery of work activity after the national holidays on November 11 in France and Belgium.
Climate has played a key role in these variations, with lower average temperatures recorded compared to the previous week. Belgium, Germany, and France stood out with decreases of over 8°C. Forecasts indicate that demand will continue to rise in several European markets until the end of November, except for France and Great Britain, where a decrease is anticipated.
As for electricity prices, a general increase has been observed, with the Nordic market Nord Pool and the French EPEX SPOT recording the most significant hikes, with increases of 113% and 179%, respectively. In contrast, the Iberian market reported the smallest increase, at 3.3%, although it exceeded €100/MWh in certain sessions. The German market stood out with an average daily price of €146.48/MWh on November 21, the highest of the week.
This surge in electricity prices has been attributed to the combination of growing demand and the rising cost of natural gas, as well as the decrease in wind and solar production in some markets. On the other hand, TTF gas futures have shown a decrease, reaching their lowest point since May 2024, which could influence short-term electricity prices.
Additionally, it was announced that AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold a webinar on December 4, focusing on the balance of the first year of the quinquennium of batteries and future perspectives on renewable energy and energy storage, with the participation of experts from the energy sector.
Source: MiMub in Spanish
