Sure! Here’s the translation:
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A new study from the Institute for Economics & Peace has highlighted that changes in precipitation patterns are significantly increasing conflict risks around the world. The Ecological Threats Report 2025 indicates that nearly 2 billion people—one-quarter of the global population—live in regions where climate seasonality is experiencing moderate to severe increases.
The study concludes that in areas where rainfall is concentrated over fewer months, conflict mortality rates are notably higher. Regions with extreme seasonality average four times more deaths from confrontations compared to those with a more balanced pattern. In 2024, there were 45 million temporary internal displacements documented in 163 countries, the highest number since 2008, largely attributed to natural disasters severely impacting food security.
In western Brazil, especially in the Amazon, temperatures have risen at twice the global rate, causing extreme droughts and wildfires. Simultaneously, Sub-Saharan Africa is facing a crisis, with Niger being the most affected country by increasing ecological threats. In this region, accelerated competition for basic resources like water and land is fueled by population growth and climate instability.
Despite concerns about possible “wars over water,” the report notes that in modern times, there have been no interstate conflicts solely driven by this resource. Instead, numerous international treaties have promoted cooperation among nations regarding water, suggesting that conflict prevention may depend on a collaborative rather than a competitive approach.
Steve Killelea, founder and chairman of the IEP, emphasizes that the lack of infrastructure for water capture and distribution represents a critical challenge. In Sub-Saharan Africa, only 2% of cultivated land is irrigated, compared to the global average of 20%, which heightens pressure on scarce water resources and the likelihood of conflicts.
The report underscores the need to reassess public policies and prioritize the creation of climate-resilient water systems, particularly in contexts of ecological instability. This strategy could not only reduce conflicts but also contribute to peace and long-term sustainability. In a world increasingly marked by climate and resource disparities, understanding how cooperation has functioned in the past could provide models for preventing future confrontations.
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